iCapital 2025 Outlook | Solid Growth Ahead, But Watch For Wild Cards
- Editor
- Dec 24, 2024
- 1 min read
Updated: Mar 23
What's New:
iCapital's 2025 market outlook projects 2.1% U.S. GDP growth and an S&P 500 fair value target of 6,700, but highlights several major "wild cards" that could significantly impact markets, including trade policy, tax reform, and Fed decisions.
Why It Matters: With Trump returning to the White House, potential universal tariffs, TCJA extension timing, and Fed policy shifts create an unusually wide range of possible outcomes for investors in 2025 compared to recent years.
Big Picture Drivers:
Consumer spending remains resilient, supported by rising disposable income and household wealth
Productivity growth has accelerated to 2.1% annually, boosted by AI adoption and business investment
Global monetary policy is shifting, with the Fed expected to cut rates while Japan continues tightening
By The Numbers:
S&P 500 fair value estimate: 6,700 (vs. 6,053 on Dec 9, 2024)
Expected U.S. GDP growth: 2.1% in 2025
Core PCE inflation forecast: 2.3% in 2025
Key Trends to Watch:
Potential implementation of universal tariffs could raise effective tariff rates to decade highs
M&A activity expected to rise 25% in 2025, returning to pre-pandemic levels
Big Tech faces uncertain regulatory environment under Trump's second term
The Bottom Line For Investors: While fundamentals support a positive baseline outlook for risk assets in 2025, investors should maintain strategic allocations while staying nimble to navigate potential volatility. Focus on domestically-oriented sectors like financials, real estate, and software, with particular opportunities in private markets during periods of public market stress.
Commentaires