Apollo 2025 Economic Outlook | US Economy Firing on All Cylinders Despite Higher Rates
- Editor
- Dec 28, 2024
- 1 min read
What's new: Apollo's Chief Economist forecasts continued US economic strength in 2025, with 2.3% GDP growth expected and inflation stabilizing around 2.4%, even as the Federal Reserve maintains higher interest rates.
Why it matters: The US economy has uniquely defied predictions of a recession, diverging from other developed nations through a combination of AI-driven corporate spending, fiscal stimulus, and reduced sensitivity to interest rate hikes.
The big picture:
US economy shows remarkable resilience with strong consumer spending and corporate profits, despite Fed rate hikes staying in the 4-5% range
The AI boom is driving unprecedented investment in data centers and infrastructure, with tech giants' capital expenditure approaching $50 billion annually
Fixed-rate mortgages and corporate debt have insulated much of the economy from interest rate impacts, unlike in previous cycles
By the numbers:
GDP expected to grow 2.3% in 2025, following 2.8% growth in 2024
Unemployment rate projected to edge up slightly to 4.4% from current 4.2%
Federal government now spending $3 billion per day on interest expenses, nearly triple 2019 levels
Key trends to watch:
The Fed's pace of rate cuts in 2025 - market expects four 25bp cuts, but Apollo forecasts fewer
Impact of Trump's potential policies on tariffs, taxes, and immigration could drive inflation higher
Growing government deficit and debt levels may force rates to stay elevated longer than expected
The bottom line for investors: Traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolios face headwinds from high public market valuations and tight credit spreads. Apollo recommends investors consider increasing allocation to private markets, particularly private credit and hybrid investments, while maintaining selective exposure to sectors benefiting from AI and infrastructure spending.
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