Spend on Anthropic across Blackstone's portfolio reached $525 million annualized. Jon Gray argues the payoff from AI capex now shows up in company-level returns and margins, while physical supply limits how fast it scales.

Private credit will reach its largest new pools of capital only when it trades, prices, and settles like a public security. Marc Rowan, Chairman and CEO at Apollo Global Management, argues this in a fireside chat at Bank of America's 31st Annual Financials CEO Conference. He names five new buyers: individuals, insurers, institutional debt and equity buckets, traditional asset managers, and retirement plans. He says none of them are natural fund investors.

Software makes up 23% of direct lending, against 13% of the broadly syndicated loan market. Marathon's Bruce Richards argues that concentration, at around 8 times leverage and with enterprise values halved, sets up the next credit cycle.

US direct lending funds returned 2.6% on average for the latest full year, below the 4.3% return on broadly syndicated loans. PitchBook's H1 2026 Global Private Debt Report points to spread compression in crowded strategies. Megafunds took 78.7% of US direct lending capital, while Europe's less concentrated market kept its premium over liquid loans.

BDO's 2026 Private Equity Survey of 400 US PE leaders finds 82% expect deal prices to rise over the next year. Hold periods are moving the same way, with 80% reporting holds of 5 years or more. Competition for a thin pool of quality assets is pushing entry prices up while the exit channel stays narrow.

A CFA Institute paper modeled target-date funds over a 40-year career. A 10% private equity allocation raised the average end balance by 13%. Cutting the horizon by 10 years cut balances by around 65%. Contributions, horizon and glide path drive outcomes more than the private market allocation itself.

Invesco's Summer 2026 DC Participant Pulse Survey finds 65% of participants would choose a target-date fund with private markets at an added 0.15% annual cost. Access alone does little to justify the fee. Private credit is the least understood strategy, and participants prefer the label private lending.

ADIA raised its private equity band to 15 to 20% and cut real estate to 2 to 7%. The 2025 Review ties the increase to faster capital recycling and a reopened exit market.

HarbourVest's 2026 Mid-Year Private Markets Outlook puts exit volume near $2 trillion annualized, but three transactions account for more than a third of first-half activity and distribution yields have run at roughly half their historical average for four consecutive years. Liquidity is reaching category leaders and the small end of buyout. The broad middle of the market is still waiting.

Three venture firms raised almost a third of new US venture money in the first half of 2026, and AI exits are just as concentrated. Access to top-tier managers is becoming the main driver of LP venture returns.

Dr. Sadek Wahba of I Squared argues that the largest source of value in infrastructure over the coming years is AI and data analytics applied to assets already in service. His examples are operational, from chassis fleets to refrigerated containers. He concedes the gain is efficiency, and that AI does not change the risk framework.

The $104 billion Oregon fund returned 3.5% for the quarter against a 6.6% peer median, and private equity was the only major class to decline. Over one year the private book returned 1.1% against a benchmark at 25.4%. The structure that produced top decile results since inception is now the reason the fund trails its peers.

Aon modeled Oregon's liquidity under a deep recession followed by prolonged stagnation and found illiquid exposure rising from 53% to 77% of the fund. Its conclusion is that liquidity remains sufficient in every scenario tested. The number worth sitting with is what sufficient looks like at 77%, and how much of the gap comes from today's overweight.

Oregon holds close to 50% of a $104 billion fund in private markets against a 40% target, and its consultant says plainly that the position now limits what the policy portfolio can be changed to. The recommended fix raises the illiquid target rather than cutting the exposure, which is what a decade-old overweight does to an allocation study.

Meketa's final asset-liability study gives the $104 billion Oregon fund a 7.5% Credit allocation where policy currently has none, funded mainly by cutting fixed income from 25% to 20%. Private equity comes down a point. Credit stops being a line item inside the bond book and becomes a class the council allocates to directly, with its own benchmark and its own range.

The $65.4 billion Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund's private real assets sleeve returned 2.26% net against a 1.36% benchmark, but a $172 million farmland fund inside it returned 66.23% for the quarter while sitting down 8.34% over one year and 3.20% annualized over ten. The $5.26 billion real estate book that holds the actual capital has returned negative 0.09% annualized over three years and sits 2.2 points below target.

Alternatives contributed 81 basis points of manager effect against 62 basis points for the entire $65.4 billion Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund. Private equity returned 4.75% against a benchmark of negative 2.65%, because both the marks and the index are lagged one quarter and those two periods moved in opposite directions. Over three years the same construction turns the advantage into a 708 basis point shortfall.

Callan's second quarter review of the $65.4 billion Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund records a 0.07% net return on private credit against a 2.32% benchmark, while the plan's own bank loan and high yield mandates returned 1.70% and 2.13%. Over five years the sleeve has returned 4.37% against 7.94%. The plan is also measured against a benchmark that assumes a private credit program roughly twice the size of the one it holds.

Connecticut's private equity program returned 6.5% over three years while its Russell 3000 plus 250 basis points policy benchmark returned 18.8%. The plan's answer is that a public market index measures a long-term asset class poorly over short horizons, an argument that is sound and also convenient.

Connecticut returned 15.1% for the fiscal year, and global equity produced 12.3 points of it. Private equity and private credit contributed 0.6 points each, from an allocation holding 51% in global equity against a 37% policy target and underweight every private asset class.